How Long is a Piece of String?

I was chatting to some of my Dutch and German friends on IRC last night (well it was that or watch that bloody singing competition) and the subject of the Euro came up. "You're in finance Dragon," someone said, "How long do you think the Euro will last"

Well just to be clear I may work for a financial organization (thanks for all that taxpayer's money guys!) but I'm not a trader, I just work with the shouty braces types and the bespectacled chaps with Aspergers and maths PhD's* to come up with clever trading and risk management applications. I'm quite good at it too, my systems have won industry awards.

What I'm not good at is divination. To be honest I have no idea if the Euro will survive or if not how long it will live and what will be the manner of its demise. But I'm not alone, nobody does. My own belief is that the markets (well equity** markets at least) will just in the end get fed up with looking at bond rates and endless politicos preening themselves at crisis conference after crisis conference and Nick Clegg throwing his rattle out of the pram and having a tantrum and will go back to doing what they do, looking at company fundamentals, share price relative to earnings, that kind of thing.

Personally I hope the Euro goes and the EU with it. I am no wrap myself in the Union Flag and parade with a bulldog little Englander, far from it, I am very pro-European. I've worked all around Europe, speak four European languages (two of them well enough to do business in) and am all for co-operation that brings us peace and mutual prosperity. However the EU has become none of these things and is seems obvious to me that it is becoming more and more of a tyranny of oligarchs and apparatchiks, unelected, remote and hostile to the liberal ethics which made Europe's nations great in the first place. It needs to go.

And my Dutch and German friends agreed. And they said they would still be able to sell me Stollen and Grolsch perfectly well without the EU and could I bring some PG Tips and Tiptree's marmalade when I come over at New Year. 



* Come on, when did you ever meet a quant who was in any way or shape normal!
** Shares to you and me